No serious asset protection professional should claim that high gas prices automatically “cause” shoplifting. Theft is driven by many factors: opportunity, weak deterrence, organized retail crime, staffing gaps, prosecution risk, and economic stress. But it is reasonable, and operationally responsible, to recognize that when essentials take a bigger bite out of household budgets, retailers often face more theft pressure at exactly the same time their margins are under strain.
On Friday, February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court delivered a decision with immediate ripple effects across retail pricing, sourcing, and cash flow: the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose sweeping, across the board tariffs.
By 2016, Doris Payne’s name already carried a mythic aura. Often framed as a globe trotting jewel thief who relied less on force and more on charm, distraction, and audacity. Then came the modern retail security version of the tale: surveillance video, mall police response, plea negotiations, and the ultimate LP trump card when a person keeps coming back, formal bans from stores and malls.
The allegation was small on paper at roughly $86 worth of merchandise shoplifted.
The setting was pure mid century Los Angeles: May Company Wilshire, the gleaming retail palace with a gold cylinder on the corner that once served as the Miracle Mile’s showpiece.
After the cameras, the quotes, and the crowded courtroom energy was over there was an acquittal that only made the story linger longer.
Many compulsive offenders are chasing relief (or escaping discomfort), not just product. So interventions that increase “friction” and reduce the ease of completing the ritual can be unusually effective.
When theft prevention depends on intuition, “that person looks suspicious,” “this customer seems fine,” “they’re a professional, they wouldn’t do that” you create gaps. And gaps get exploited.
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/courtney-janell-shaw-assistant-principal-shoplifting-arrest
The holidays are the ultimate stress test for retail. Traffic spikes, staffing gets stretched thin, product density goes up, and shrink pressure rises right along with it. If your EAS system “barely made it” through the season, false alarms, inconsistent detection, shaky pedestals, weak deactivation, broken detachers, now is the moment to deal with it.
A meaningful refund isn’t “found money” for these companies, it’s back rent, payroll, and inventory funding that they’ve been effectively fronting to the government. For many, it would literally be the difference between shuttering and surviving....A tariff is just a tax on imports, paid by the U.S. business receiving the goods at the port of entry. Broad based tariffs don’t mainly hit foreign governments, they hit American companies and, indirectly, American consumers.
https://www.retaildive.com/news/winners-losers-black-friday-2025/806610/#:~:text=Additionally%2C%20units%20per%20transaction%20dropped,year%2C”%20CI&T's%20Minkow%20noted.
Black Friday 2025 sent a loud signal: shoppers are paying more for less, and they know it. In a retail environment already stretched by inflation, tariffs, and thinner staffing, that’s exactly the kind of pressure cooker that typically leads to higher shoplifting and fraud.
Retailers who acknowledge that reality now, and invest accordingly in prevention, EAS, store design, and smarter promotions, will be in a much better position when the 2026 “hangover” hits.
https://www.retaildive.com/news/winners-losers-black-friday-2025/806610/#:~:text=Additionally%2C%20units%20per%20transaction%20dropped,year%2C”%20CI&T's%20Minkow%20noted.
The NRF/LPRC/Sensormatic report makes one thing crystal clear: theft and violence aren’t going away on their own. Retailers are seeing more incidents, more organization, and more aggression than just a few years ago.
Black Friday 2025 will be a stress test for every loss prevention program. But with a data driven, layered approach, and EAS and security tags positioned at the center, you can:
Keep more product on the floor instead of behind glass
Protect employees and customers
Hold onto the margin you’re working so hard to drive that weekend
https://297051953189d612da9e-1e2a7931911c2abaf913026fb7c64860.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/Research/Retail%20Theft%20%26%20Violence/NRF_ImpactofRetailTheftViolence_2024.pdf
For big box chains with scale, that hurts. For independent retailers, dollar stores, convenience operators, pharmacies, apparel boutiques, it’s brutal. They already operate on thin margins, and they don’t have the leverage to negotiate everything away. So they either raise prices, reduce selection, or delay inventory refreshes. None of those options make shoppers happier.
https://www.votervoice.net/NRF/Campaigns/123436/Respond
If you sell auto parts today, you’re fighting a two-front war: rising costs and rising shrink. Parts were already high ticket; now, with broad tariffs touching a huge portion of the automotive supply chain, and headline rates around 25% on some vehicle categories, sticker prices are climbing. That squeezes honest shoppers and, unfortunately, makes parts a hotter target for opportunistic theft and organized retail crime (ORC).
If you run brick and mortar retail, October is a double edged sword. Traffic spikes (great), but so do theft attempts (not great). And this year, the cost of Halloween inventory is higher than usual thanks to tariffs and commodity pressures. Here’s what to expect, and what to do, before the spooky season hits full stride.
When sales accelerate, more units move through your doors, more merchandise sits on the floor, and more associates are stretched to meet demand. That combination reliably increases opportunistic theft, especially in small, high-margin items (beauty, accessories, electronics peripherals) and busy zones near entrances/exits. With tariffs lifting input costs and wage pressure still elevated in many markets, every basis point of shrink now cuts deeper into profitability.
In New York City, the 34th Street Partnership piloted a program with Stapleton Security to station trained dogs and handlers inside and outside a CVS near 34th & 8th. The mission is deterrence, not pursuit: the dogs don’t chase; they signal that someone is paying attention.
https://warwickonline.com/stories/how-to-curb-your-dogs-shoplifting,280406
On August 20, 2025, the City of West Hollywood made headlines by voting unanimously to ban the retail sale of nearly all live animals within city limits. The amendment to West Hollywood Municipal Code Chapter 9.50.020 expands the city’s previous ban on selling dogs and cats...As laws shift to protect animals, pet retailers must still protect their inventory. Loss prevention isn’t just about profits; it ensures honest customers aren’t paying the price for theft driven losses.
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/west-hollywood-elects-to-ban-retail-sales-of-nearly-all-live-animals/
I run programs for hundreds of doors with mixed risk, mixed fixtures, and a constant need to protect margin without wrecking the shopper experience. My approach is boring by design, standardize the fewest SKUs that cover the most scenarios, keep checkout clean, and make sure detachers match locks at every lane.
Historically, core goods inflation, covering items like apparel, home furnishings, and electronics, has been muted. In July, however, economists noted that tariff-driven cost increases are starting to make their way to the shelf. This is particularly relevant for retailers that depend on imported goods from countries targeted by recent tariff actions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/12/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-july-2025-in-one-chart.html
Walmart is making headlines for…not backing down. With a wave of high profile arrests and prosecutions across the country, Walmart is showing the retail industry what it looks like to take theft seriously, and local courts are stepping up to support them.
https://apnews.com/article/michigan-walmart-car-wash-shoplifters-fcbc8bf71934adc0660484e78d8443fd
Industry reports have long noted that organized retail crime spikes during periods of economic uncertainty. The current surge in tariffs is likely to increase shrink even further, as both opportunistic and organized theft exploit vulnerable retail environments.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trumps-tariffs-rekindle-global-trade-tensions.html