If you run brick and mortar retail, October is a double edged sword. Traffic spikes (great), but so do theft attempts (not great). And this year, the cost of Halloween inventory is higher than usual thanks to tariffs and commodity pressures. Here’s what to expect, and what to do, before the spooky season hits full stride.
When sales accelerate, more units move through your doors, more merchandise sits on the floor, and more associates are stretched to meet demand. That combination reliably increases opportunistic theft, especially in small, high-margin items (beauty, accessories, electronics peripherals) and busy zones near entrances/exits. With tariffs lifting input costs and wage pressure still elevated in many markets, every basis point of shrink now cuts deeper into profitability.
In New York City, the 34th Street Partnership piloted a program with Stapleton Security to station trained dogs and handlers inside and outside a CVS near 34th & 8th. The mission is deterrence, not pursuit: the dogs don’t chase; they signal that someone is paying attention.
https://warwickonline.com/stories/how-to-curb-your-dogs-shoplifting,280406
On August 20, 2025, the City of West Hollywood made headlines by voting unanimously to ban the retail sale of nearly all live animals within city limits. The amendment to West Hollywood Municipal Code Chapter 9.50.020 expands the city’s previous ban on selling dogs and cats...As laws shift to protect animals, pet retailers must still protect their inventory. Loss prevention isn’t just about profits; it ensures honest customers aren’t paying the price for theft driven losses.
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/west-hollywood-elects-to-ban-retail-sales-of-nearly-all-live-animals/
I run programs for hundreds of doors with mixed risk, mixed fixtures, and a constant need to protect margin without wrecking the shopper experience. My approach is boring by design, standardize the fewest SKUs that cover the most scenarios, keep checkout clean, and make sure detachers match locks at every lane.
Historically, core goods inflation, covering items like apparel, home furnishings, and electronics, has been muted. In July, however, economists noted that tariff-driven cost increases are starting to make their way to the shelf. This is particularly relevant for retailers that depend on imported goods from countries targeted by recent tariff actions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/12/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-july-2025-in-one-chart.html
Walmart is making headlines for…not backing down. With a wave of high profile arrests and prosecutions across the country, Walmart is showing the retail industry what it looks like to take theft seriously, and local courts are stepping up to support them.
https://apnews.com/article/michigan-walmart-car-wash-shoplifters-fcbc8bf71934adc0660484e78d8443fd
Industry reports have long noted that organized retail crime spikes during periods of economic uncertainty. The current surge in tariffs is likely to increase shrink even further, as both opportunistic and organized theft exploit vulnerable retail environments.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trumps-tariffs-rekindle-global-trade-tensions.html
The price of baby formula and premium coffee has surged due to global tariffs, supply chain constraints, and rising commodity costs. These price hikes have made these goods even more attractive targets for organized retail theft rings, many of whom resell stolen goods online or to unregulated wholesalers.
In April 2025, bipartisan lawmakers in Congress introduced the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (H.R. 2853 / S. 1404) a groundbreaking bill designed to fight back against the rise of sophisticated theft rings targeting retailers and supply chains.
With organized retail crime (ORC) on the rise nationwide, this legislation could reshape how law enforcement, retailers, and transportation providers work together to tackle theft and fraud. Here’s what you need to know:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1404/text
Retailers know the frustration: a customer is ready to buy a pair of sneakers, sandals, or flip-flops—only to discover one is missing. Or worse, a shoplifter has walked out with a single shoe, leaving its mate behind as dead stock. These seemingly small issues add up to lost sales, frustrated shoppers, and wasted time for sales associates trying to match items that have been separated.
With tariffs hitting consumer staples from cars to electronics, apparel to home goods, retailers will be paying much more for inventory. Some newly tariffed imports will see duties as high as 36% or 40%, adding pressure to supply chains already strained by global uncertainty.
The likely result? Scarcity on store shelves, higher prices for consumers, and a retail environment ripe for theft.
Security Tags Matter!
While much of the conversation centered on digital threats, physical loss prevention tools like EAS (Electronic Article Surveillance) security tags remain a critical part of a multi-layered defense. As theft rings grow bolder and more strategic, including a reported 1,475% spike in cargo theft via deception between 2022 and 2024, visible deterrents like tags, labels, and sensors are evolving in both form and function.
https://nrfprotect.nrf.com/attend/2025-event-recap
Despite the backend data advantages RFID provides, the absence of visible deterrents sends the wrong message to would-be thieves. As with home security, visibility matters, alarms, signage, and cameras all reduce the likelihood of criminal behavior. In stores, hard tags and pedestals play that same role.
EAS systems trigger an alarm, but some brazen shoplifters often gamble they can get away or that staff won’t respond. With ink tags, the risk is greater: even if they succeed in leaving the store, the ink tag is there to prevent use, return, or resale of the item.
Technical Advice for Retailers
Q: What advice would you give to a retailer planning a new store versus retrofitting an existing one?
A: For new builds, get your EAS vendor in touch with the general contractor early. That way, all the wiring can be hidden for a clean look and long-term protection. For retrofits, the key is communication—especially with store staff. If you’ve been merchandising coats next to the door and now those coats have tags, they’ll constantly set off alarms. Layouts often need to change, and that has to be explained clearly to staff.
Retailers will not just be protecting profits. They will be guarding massive capital outlays. This is not speculative spending. It is survival spending. In a supply chain still reeling from post-pandemic disruptions and inflation, the stakes are now higher than at any point in recent memory.
EAS systems aren't just about sounding alarms — they’re your frontline defense against loss, fraud, and inefficiency. Retail Security Group Inc. pairs cutting-edge technology from trusted names like Checkpoint and Sensormatic with installation expertise that ensures your system works as intended from day one.
Protecting your inventory is no longer about just improving margins—it’s about survival in an age of scarcity. With fewer goods on the shelves and higher costs to restock them, every stolen item represents a much deeper loss.
Every economic indicator points to a historic rise in theft risk for the second half of 2025.
With empty shelves, higher prices, and increased desperation, organized retail crime (ORC) and everyday shoplifting will become much harder to control without strong preventive measures.
